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Собственно текст для анализа

Banks increase exposure to Asia-Pacific and Latin America, but reduce positions in emerging Europe
BIS reporting banks increased their net cross-border exposures to emerging markets by $12.6 billion. This rise reflected a combination of higher cross-border claims ($7.8 billion) and lower cross-border liabilities ($4.8 billion). Cross-border claims on non-banks expanded by $35.5 billion, the largest increase since the second quarter of 2008. Conversely, cross-border claims on banks declined by $27.7 billion.
Lending patterns diverged significantly across regions. The BIS locational banking statistics reveal that cross-border claims on residents of Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean grew during the third quarter of 2009 (by $22.7 billion and $11.7 billion, respectively). Moreover, the BIS consolidated banking statistics on an immediate borrower basis indicate that local lending in local currencies in these two regions, adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations and breaks in series, also expanded (by $10.9 billion and $8.2 billion, respectively). Conversely, cross-border claims and local lending in local currencies in emerging Europe both declined during the period (by $30.1 billion and $6.8 billion, respectively).
The decoupling between emerging Europe and the rest of the developing world could reflect both demand and supply factors in international credit markets. Lower overall output growth in emerging Europe during the third quarter of 2009 may have reduced the demand for credit in the region, thus explaining at least part of the contraction in claims on its residents. In addition, the less optimistic outlook for growth in that area could have made banks less willing to extend credit to its residents. Finally, political factors could have also had a contractionary effect on both the demand and supply of credit to the region. Uncertainty regarding the outcomes of the upcoming elections in Romania and Ukraine may have contributed to two of the largest individual country declines in cross-border claims during the period (–$6.3 billion and –$2.9 billion, respectively).
The growth in foreign lending to Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean during the third quarter was led by expansions in claims on the residents of the larger economies in those regions (i.e. Brazil, China and India). Cross-border claims on these countries registered their largest increases since the first half of 2008, expanding by $13.2 billion in Brazil, $8.2 billion in China and $2.5 billion in India. Local claims denominated in local currencies also increased in these three countries (by $4.9 billion in India, $4.2 billion in China and $2.0 billion in Brazil). Meanwhile, reporting banks decreased their cross-border claims on residents of the fourth BRIC economy, Russia, for the fourth quarter in a row (–$17.1 billion).

US dollar-denominated claims increase for the first time in four quarters
US dollar-denominated international claims expanded for the first time since the third quarter of 2008, while international claims denominated in all other major currencies fell (Graph 1, centre panel). This is a sharp reversal of the pattern observed during the crisis, when dollar claims contracted much more rapidly than those denominated in other currencies. The $45 billion expansion of reporting banks’ US dollar positions was driven by an increase in claims on banks ($121 billion), the first in four quarters and the largest since early 2008. This was partially offset by a decrease in US dollar claims on non-banks ($76 billion). At the same time, claims denominated in sterling recorded their largest contraction in a decade (–$183 billion) and euro-denominated claims shrank for the fourth quarter in a row (–$191 billion).
The breakdown by counterparty residence largely mirrors that by currency (Graph 1, right-hand panel). A large part of the overall contraction in international claims was driven by declines in claims on residents of the United Kingdom (–$183 billion) and the euro area (–$151 billion). Conversely, international lending to residents of the United States expanded by $134 billion. The drop in claims on euro area borrowers was almost entirely caused by a decrease in claims on banks (–$138 billion). Interbank lending also accounted for the bulk of the decline in claims on UK residents (–$131 billion). International claims on residents of emerging markets grew by $42 billion, almost entirely driven by a $41 billion expansion in lending to non-banks.

The international banking market
Banks’ international balance sheets contracted again in the third quarter of 2009, although the pace of the decline was much slower than in the preceding three quarters.
Total gross international claims of BIS reporting banks fell by $360 billion (Graph 1, left-hand panel), the smallest decline since the start of the crisis. The bulk of the contraction (71%) was due to a shrinkage in interbank claims (–$257 billion), while the rest was generated by a fall in claims on non-banks (–$103 billion). Reporting banks’ international portfolios continued to shift towards claims on the public sector. Cross-border claims on borrowers in emerging markets increased slightly for the second consecutive quarter, mainly reflecting growth in claims on residents of Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. Exchange rate adjusted local lending in local currencies in these two regions also expanded, but declined in emerging Europe.

Exchange-traded derivatives
After pausing in the previous quarter, the recovery in activity on the international derivatives exchanges continued at a modest pace in the final three months of 2009. Turnover measured by notional amounts went up by 5% to $444 trillion between October and December, 22% higher than at the trough in the first quarter but still well below its peak ($690 trillion) in early 2008. This increase was fairly evenly distributed across risk categories. Open interest, also based on notional amounts, rose in line with turnover, by 6% to $73 trillion.
Turnover in interest rate derivatives went up by 4% to $383 trillion (Graph 5, left-hand panel), with considerable variation across currencies. Increasing turnover in contracts denominated in the euro (17%), New Zealand dollar (37%) and Canadian dollar (59%) contrasted with a 10% decline in sterling contracts and stable turnover in futures and options on US and Japanese interest rates.
Higher equity valuations drove up turnover measured by notional amounts in derivatives on stock price indices by 8%, while turnover measured by the number of contracts traded rose by only 3% (Graph 5, centre panel). Among the few markets with a genuine increase in activity was the Brazilian market, where trading volume measured by notional amounts surged by 58% to $0.7 trillion, just short of its peak of late 2007. In the first quarter of 2009, turnover in Brazilian stock index contracts stood at a mere $0.2 trillion. Much of the recovery in trading activity was driven by increases in stock prices (the Bovespa index gained 11% in the fourth quarter), but the number of contracts traded also went up by 21% in the last quarter, after stagnating in the first three months of the year.
Activity in the market for foreign exchange derivatives strengthened in the final quarter of 2009. Turnover measured by notional amounts rose by 15% to $8 trillion, the highest on record. Open interest increased by 11% to $310 billion. Turnover growth was particularly strong in contracts on the Swiss franc (38%). Most of this appears to reflect higher short-term trading rather than longer-term position-taking, as open interest in derivatives on the franc fell by 17%.
The data provide some support for the notion of the (renewed) attractiveness of FX carry trades. FX carry trades can be implemented in a number of ways, one of which involves a long position in futures or options on a high-yielding currency and a short position in contracts on a low-yielding one. Admittedly, it is impossible to identify the motivations behind individual positions in the observable data. Even so, it is striking that open interest in two of the most attractive target currencies has increased considerably since the height of the crisis. Open interest in contracts on the Australian dollar (the red line in the right-hand panel of Graph 5) rose from $4 billion at the end of 2008 to $13 billion one year later, although much of this increase took place in the first half of the year. Positions in the Brazilian real (green line) also expanded considerably (by 26% in the fourth quarter of 2009 alone). The funding currencies have changed from previous episodes of high carry trade activity. Short-term interest rates are low in a number of large economies, which has expanded the number of possible funding currencies. Open interest in the two traditional funding currencies, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, fell in the final quarter of 2009. Unfortunately, it is hard to say on the basis of the available data which other currencies have taken their place.
Activity in futures and options on commodities increased at a moderate pace in the final three months of 2009. Turnover measured by the number of contracts traded (notional amounts are not available for this risk category) rose by 7%, although with considerable variation across types of commodities. Trading volumes in contracts on precious metals increased by almost 50%, driven by near doubling of trading in gold contracts on Chinese exchanges. Turnover in contracts on agricultural commodities and energy contracts increased by 5% and 2%, respectively. By contrast, volumes of derivatives on non-precious metals fell by 31%.


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